Return to Dan's Home Page
Meet Daniel Encell
Dan's current listings
Services for Buyers & Sellers
Information about the Santa Barbara area
Market information for the Santa Barbara area
Success with Dan Encell
Dan in the Media
Search the Multiple Listing Service
Contact Dan

Home prices may fall again


Rising interest rates

Home prices on the South Coast will fall slightly again this year, following a drop in 2006 that marked the first time in a decade that the median turned downward.

The median price is expected to decline by another 1 percent in the year ahead -- to about $1.185 million -- but it will take another three years for it to surpass the recent peak of $1.25 million, according to the California Economic Forecast.

Housing experts presented their projections for 2007 at a gathering Thursday hosted by the Santa Barbara Association of Realtors. More than 350 people attended the event at Fess Parker's Doubletree Resort.

From 1995-2005, South Coast homeowners enjoyed steep increases in the value of their properties, with the rise in prices resembling the incline of an advanced ski slope.

The median hit a record $1.25 million in 2005. In 2006, it finally fell for the first time, but it shed only 4 percent of its value -- a mere bunny slope of a slide compared to the huge jumps of prior years.

Median price is the point where half the homes on the market sell for more and half sell for less. It represents the mix of all homes sold during a specific time period and not appreciation rates on individual properties.

Price declines should hit bottom this year, said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast and main speaker at the event.

Those who purchased homes in the last two years, however, will likely not see much in the way of gains until 2010, the California Economic Forecast predicted.

Between 2005 and 2007, the median is expected to decline more than 5 percent, the economic group said. Adjusted for inflation, the drop could be as much as 12 percent.

"There has been no major price collapse," Mr. Schniepp said, "but we had a much larger correction than we all predicted."

While total home sales fell significantly over the past two years, transactions are expected to bounce back this year, he added. Sales are expected to keep increasing through 2011.

Single-family homes and condo sales on the South Coast combined took a dive in 2006, hitting the lowest level in more than two decades, Mr. Schniepp said.

But compared to the rest of California and the nation, the South Coast sales slump appears mild, said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, who also spoke at the conference.

"Santa Barbara's road is less bumpy than Los Angeles and a lot less than San Diego," he told the audience. "You're in pretty good shape."

Mr. Lereah said that the nation's home buyers "strayed from the fundamentals," and that has led to a "recession in real estate right now."

Exuberant investors flocked to places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Fort Lauderdale and Miami, scooping up as much property as they could get their hands on, he added.

"These were flippers and speculators. In 2005, 40 percent of all home sales were to investors and second-home buyers," he explained. "Everyone got carried away."

On the South Coast, investment purchases have already been curtailed by one-third of what they were a year ago, the California Economic Forecast reported.

"We needed to learn our limit. And today we are faced with the remnants of our limits," Mr. Lereah said about speculative buying.

Despite the rough patch, he expressed optimism for the home market in the years ahead.

Baby boomers are in their peak earning years and will still buy homes, as will the boomers' kids. And immigrants coming to the United States in record numbers, along with retirees living longer, also will add to demand for homes, Mr. Lereah said.

Demand for property in the wealthy Montecito area remains strong, even though the rest of the South Coast has gone into a pause, according to Dan Encell of Prudential Fine Homes.

Montecito was the only area on the South Coast that had positive price gains last year, and the market for homes priced at $5 million and up is expected to stay hot, said Mr. Encell, who also spoke at the conference.

The brisk sales of multimillion-dollar homes in Montecito, as well as its counterpart, Hope Ranch, have served to buoy overall property values on the South Coast, said Mr. Schniepp.

When Montecito and Hope Ranch sales are taken out of the total, he said, the median price on the South Coast is just around $1.04 million, instead of close to $1.2 million.



Tight inventory, higher prices for South County home market
(Santa Barbara News Press, 1/26/2014)

Now is the Time to Sell
Los Angeles Times, 1/2/2011)

2009 Survey
(Realty Times, 1/6/2010)

Golfer Couples Sells House
(Wall Street Journal, 9/18/2009)

Best Cities For A Housing Recovery
(, 8/13/2009)

A Tale of Two Markets Divided by the Conforming-Loan Limit
(Los Angeles Times, 6/14/2009)

When Home Prices Hit Bottom
(CNN, 4/1/2009)

PGA pro Fred Couples Lists Montecito Home at $12.5 million
(Los Angeles Times, 3/24/2009)

The Road to Recovery
(Dan Encell, 3/12/2009)

How to Sell a House, When You Have to Sell It Now
(Wall Street Journal, 7/14/2008)

S.B. listed as one of U.S.'s most distinctive destinations
(Santa Barbara News-Press, 1/13/2009)

South Coast economy resolute, expert says: Forecast: Santa Barbara's situation “boringly steady”
(Santa Barbara News-Press, 4/18/2008)

South Coast office space remains at a premium
(Santa Barbara News-Press, 1/30/2008)

2007 Real Estate & Economic Outlook
(CASA, 3/2/2007)

Home Prices May Fall Again
(Santa Barbara News-Press, 2/23/2007)

Home Sellers Find Buyers are Standing Tough
(Santa Barbara News-Press, 11/10/2006)

Future Trends will Reshape Real Estate Industry
(Santa Barbara New-Press 11/1/2005)

Number of Homes Sold in County Drops
(Santa Barbara News-Press 10/25/2005)

Housing Market Shows Signs of Flattening
(Santa Barbara News-Press 9/30/2005)

Home prices hot, but buyers cool
(Santa Barbara News-Press 3/24/2005)

Casa de Maria puts price tag on Montecito Property
(Santa Barbara News-Press 1/25/2005)

Helping buyers find their Home Safe Home”
(Santa Barbara News-Press 1/2/2005

Rich buyers help boost median home prices
(Santa Barbara News-Press 12/23/2004)

Copyright Dan Encell