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Daniel Encell’s
Quarterly Real Estate Update
~ Archives ~

1st Quarter 2023

Nationwide
While prices proved to be remarkably resilient in 2022, the year ended with the fewest home sales ever recorded. After a rapid series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, mortgage interest rates more than doubled, compared to where they started the year. This brought a sudden end to the red-hot market that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing-home sales fell for ten consecutive months. According to the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, “In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen…The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.”

Santa Barbara - South Coast
Although the sales statistics for Santa Barbara County look grim for 2022, they don’t fully reflect how devastating the higher mortgage interest rates have been to our market. Despite the meltdown in sales, prices remained strong, thanks in large part to a pronounced shortage of homes offered for sale. Total Active Listings fell 30% as 1488 properties were offered for sale. Less selection and reduced affordability resulted in a 35% decline in the Number Sold, as 1372 properties traded hands. Average Sale Price climbed 12% to $2,665,311, and Median Sale Price jumped 15% to $1,692,500. Despite anemic sales, it was still a Seller’s Market throughout 2022. On average, properties sold for 100% if their last list price! Overall Sold Volume slid 27% to $3,656,807,037. The largest sale in 2022, was also the largest residential sale in South Coast history – 2781/2801 Padaro Lane for just under $70 million.

Montecito
Montecito has not given up any of the price gains it accumulated over the past three years, despite a significant drop in sales. It still feels like a Seller’s Market, though not nearly so much as it did at the start of the year. During the last six months of 2022, one in three properties still sold for at, or over, the asking price!

Lack of selection continues to be an issue in the 93108 zip code. Total Active Listings declined 41% in 2022 - that is more than any other area along the South Coast. The Number Sold dropped 45% as only 182 properties traded hands. However, prices were strong: Average Sale Price rose 11% to $6,561,774, and Median Sale Price climbed 11% to $4,850,000. Overall Sold Volume fell 39% to $1,194,243,031. On average, properties in Montecito sold for 97% of their last list price - 1% lower than a year ago. The largest sale in Montecito was 700 Picacho Lane for $52,000,000.

I expect the trends that dominated the last half of 2022  to continue in 2023- higher interest rates; low inventory; fewer sales; and, stable prices.

San Roque
Activity in San Roque (MLS Area 15) was very similar to the rest of the South Coast - low inventory and fewer sales at higher prices. Total Active Listings dropped 32% to 346 properties. The Number Sold fell 37% as 319 properties traded hands. Average Sale Price jumped 17% to $2,242,372, and Median Sale Price climbed 16% to $1,950,000. Overall Sold Volume slipped 26% to $715,316,856. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 103% of their last list price - an increase of 1% compared to a year ago.

The largest sale in San Roque was 3630 San Remo Drive for $3,750,000.

Upper East
Activity in the Upper East (MLS Area 15) was very similar to the rest of the South Coast - low inventory and fewer sales at higher prices. Total Active Listings dropped 32% to 346 properties. The Number Sold fell 37% as 319 properties traded hands. Average Sale Price jumped 17% to $2,242,372, and Median Sale Price climbed 16% to $1,950,000. Overall Sold Volume slipped 26% to $715,316,856. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 103% of their last list price - an increase of 1% compared to a year ago.

The largest sale in the Upper East was 225 East Pedregosa Street for $5,550,000.

Riviera
Activity on the Riviera (MLS Area 15) was very similar to the rest of the South Coast - low inventory and fewer sales at higher prices. Total Active Listings dropped 32% to 346 properties. The Number Sold fell 37% as 319 properties traded hands. Average Sale Price jumped 17% to $2,242,372, and Median Sale Price climbed 16% to $1,950,000. Overall Sold Volume slipped 26% to $715,316,856. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 103% of their last list price - an increase of 1% compared to a year ago.

The largest sale on the Riviera was 1191 Las Alturas Road for $6,750,000.

Mesa
Activity on the Mesa (MLS Area 20) was stronger than in most areas along the South Coast in 2022. Total Active Listings slipped 28% to 282 properties. The Number Sold dropped 30% as 271 properties traded hands. Despite low sales, prices were very strong. Average Sale Price jumped 23% to $2,008,499, and Median Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,700,000. Overall Sold Volume dipped 13% to $544,303,234. On average, properties in MLS Area 20 sold for 102% of their last list price - unchanged from last year.

The largest sale on the Mesa was 1531 San Miguel Avenue for $4,460,000.

Samarkand
Activity in Samarkand (MLS Area 20) was stronger than in most areas along the South Coast in 2022. Total Active Listings slipped 28% to 282 properties. The Number Sold dropped 30% as 271 properties traded hands. Despite low sales, prices were very strong. Average Sale Price jumped 23% to $2,008,499, and Median Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,700,000. Overall Sold Volume dipped 13% to $544,303,234. On average, properties in MLS Area 20 sold for 102% of their last list price - unchanged from last year.

The largest sale in Samarkand was 3026 Serena Road for $3,400,000.

Hidden Valley
Activity in Hidden Valley (MLS Area 20) was stronger than in most areas along the South Coast in 2022. Total Active Listings slipped 28% to 282 properties. The Number Sold dropped 30% as 271 properties traded hands. Despite low sales, prices were very strong. Average Sale Price jumped 23% to $2,008,499, and Median Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,700,000. Overall Sold Volume dipped 13% to $544,303,234. On average, properties in MLS Area 20 sold for 102% of their last list price - unchanged from last year.

The largest sale in Hidden Valley was 921 Barcelona Drive for $2,200,000.

Bel Air Knolls
Activity in Bel Air Knolls (MLS Area 20) was stronger than in most areas along the South Coast in 2022. Total Active Listings slipped 28% to 282 properties. The Number Sold dropped 30% as 271 properties traded hands. Despite low sales, prices were very strong. Average Sale Price jumped 23% to $2,008,499, and Median Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,700,000. Overall Sold Volume dipped 13% to $544,303,234. On average, properties in MLS Area 20 sold for 102% of their last list price - unchanged from last year.

The largest sale in Bel Air Knolls was 1114 Bel Air Drive for $3,585,000.

Campanil Hill/ Yankee Farm
Activity in the Campanil Hill/ Yankee Farm area of the Mesa (MLS Area 20) was stronger than in most areas along the South Coast in 2022. Total Active Listings slipped 28% to 282 properties. The Number Sold dropped 30% as 271 properties traded hands. Despite low sales, prices were very strong. Average Sale Price jumped 23% to $2,008,499, and Median Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,700,000. Overall Sold Volume dipped 13% to $544,303,234. On average, properties in MLS Area 20 sold for 102% of their last list price - unchanged from last year.

The largest sale in the Campanil Hill/ Yankee Farm area was 3030 Sea Cliff for $11,995,000.

Santa Barbara Foothills/Goleta North
Activity in the Santa Barbara foothills and Goleta North (MLS Area35) outperformed the South Coast as a whole in every category for 2022. Total Active Listings slipped 25% as 281 properties were offered for sale. The Number Sold dropped 31% as 264 properties traded hands. Prices were strong! Average Sale Price jumped 15% to $1,469,784, and Median Sale Price skyrocketed 27% to $1,307,500. Overall Sold Volume fell 21% to $388,022,977. On average, properties in MLS Area 35 sold for 102% of their last list price - a decline of 1% compared to last year. The largest sale in MLS Area 35 was 4488 La Paloma Avenue for $4,700,000.

Birnam Wood Golf Club
The inventory shortage that hampered sales throughout Santa Barbara’s South Coast was particularly pronounced in Birnam Wood. 2022 ended with no Active Listings in Birnam Wood. There was one land sale in 2022 – 1950 Lemon Ranch Road for $4,300,000. There were five residential sales – 2150 Ten Acre Road for $5,170,000; 2062 China Flat Road for $6,350,000; 2049 Boundary Drive for $7,250,000; 2030 Birnam Wood Drive for $8,287,000; and 2145 Forge Road for $15,050,000. There are currently no Pending Sales in Birnam Wood.

As Birnam Wood Golf Club continues to improve it’s facilities, it’s popularity and desirability in the community are soaring. Demand for homes within the gates should be strong into the foreseeable future.

Hope Ranch
Hope Ranch real estate activity for 2022 can be easily summarized - less inventory, fewer sales, and higher prices. Total Active Listings dropped 37% as only 35 properties were offered for sale. The Number Sold plummeted 52% as 28 properties traded hands. Despite anemic sales activity, it was still a Seller’s Market. Average Sale Price skyrocketed 36% to $8,022,908, and Median Sale Price jumped 18% to $5,625,000. On average, properties in Hope Ranch sold for 99% of their last list price - unchanged from a year ago. Overall Sold Volume fell 35% to $224,641,450. The largest sale in Hope Ranch in 2022 was 4045 Cuervo Avenue for $18,500,000.

I expect inventory levels to remain low in 2023. Sales activity will also be slow, but prices should remain stable.

Summerland
Activity in Summerland/Carpinteria (MLS Area 05) was stronger than most communities along the South Coast in 2022. Total Active Listings slipped 20% as 184 properties were offered for sale. The Number Sold fell 3215 as 154 properties traded hands. Thanks to several large beach sales, prices skyrocketed! Average Sale Price jumped 50% to $2,551,187 and Median Sale Price climbed 36% to $1,192,250. MLS Area 05 was the only community where Sold Volume increased – rising 1% to $392,882,917. On average, properties in Summerland/Carpinteria sold for 94% of their last list price – a drop of 6% compared to a year ago. The largest sale in Summerland during 2022 was 350 Greenwell Avenue for $10,200,000.

Sincerely,

Daniel Encell
Director, Estates Division
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
(805) 565-4896

If you are considering selling, you need a strong agent with precise market knowledge, and superior marketing, advertising, and negotiation skills. In 34 years, I have sold over $2 billion in local sales. Creative marketing, extensive advertising, and good old fashioned hard work get the best results in any market! Please call me at (805) 565-4896 or email me at danencell@aol.com danencell@aol.com. All calls will be confidential.
 

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