4th Quarter 2020
Nationwide
Across the country, real estate is booming! Total existing-home sales are up over 10% compared to a year ago, despite a decline in inventory of more than 18%. Strong demand and limited supply put upward pressure on prices, as the median existing-home sale price increased over 11%. That is 102 straight months of year-over-year gains. According to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, “Home sales continue to amaze, and there are plenty of buyers in the pipeline ready to enter the market. Further gains are likely for the remainder of the year, with mortgage rates hovering around 3%, and with continued job recovery.”
Santa Barbara - South Coast
Activity along Santa Barbara County’s South Coast was significantly stronger than even the robust nationwide market, as both sales and prices rose dramatically. Sales were strongest in the luxury markets as Hope Ranch and Montecito both saw increases of over 130% in the Number Sold. Overall, along the South Coast, the Number Sold climbed 44% to 650. Average Sale Price jumped 19% to $1,924,028, and Median Sale Price skyrocketed 27% to $1,303,662. Sold Volume exploded 72% as we eclipsed the $1 Billion sales mark for the first time ever with $1,250,663,999 in sales. On average, properties sold for 97% of their last list price - an increase of 1% compared to a year ago. The largest sale along the South Coast was 256 Eucalyptus Hill Drive (known as “Solana”) for $30,800,000.
Santa Ynez Valley
During the first half 2020, activity in the Santa Ynez Valley was dominated by low inventory and higher prices. Compared to a year ago, Total Active Listings declined 16% to only 372 properties. Lower selection led to fewer sales as the Number Sold slid 11% to 134. Prices were strong, as Average Sale Price jumped 14% to $1,083,049 and Median Sale Price climbed 8% to $767,500. Unlike the South Coast, overall Sold Volume actually improved 2% to $145,128,628. On average, properties sold for 92% of their last list price – a decline of 3% compared to a year ago. The largest sale so far this year was 5600 Armour Ranch Road for $9,400,000.
Montecito
Sales activity in Montecito was the strongest it has ever been! Total Active Listings increased 77% to 257 properties - the largest increase along the South Coast. Improved selection led to a dramatic jump in sales as the Number Sold rose 132% to 128. Sold Volume climbed 123% to an astounding $481,544,436. Despite strong sales, prices surprisingly did not increase, as Average Sale Price slipped 3% to $3,762,065, and Median Sale Price fell 8% to $2,987,500. On average, properties in Montecito sold for 96% of their last list price - an improvement of 2% compared to a year ago.
I expect the strong Montecito market to continue through the 4th Quarter and into 2021. Look for both sales and prices to increase.
San Roque
Activity in San Roque was some of the strongest on the South Coast during the 3rd Quarter of 2020. Total Active Listings in MLS Area 15 rose 52% to 256. This increase in selection led to improved sales, as the Number Sold jumped 60% to 159. Prices were extremely strong, as Average Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,620,153, and Median Sale Price catapulted 34% to $1,475,000. Overall, Sold Volume doubled to $257,604,432. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 98% of their last list price - an improvement of 2% compared to a year ago. The largest sale in San Roque was 105 Ontare Hills Lane at $5,695,000.
Upper East
Activity in the Upper East was some of the strongest on the South Coast during the 3rd Quarter of 2020. Total Active Listings in MLS Area 15 rose 52% to 256. This increase in selection led to improved sales, as the Number Sold jumped 60% to 159. Prices were extremely strong, as Average Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,620,153, and Median Sale Price catapulted 34% to $1,475,000. Overall, Sold Volume doubled to $257,604,432. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 98% of their last list price - an improvement of 2% compared to a year ago. The largest sale in the Upper East was 2405 Santa Barbara Street at $3,050,000.
Riviera
Activity on the Riviera was some of the strongest on the South Coast during the 3rd Quarter of 2020. Total Active Listings in MLS Area 15 rose 52% to 256. This increase in selection led to improved sales, as the Number Sold jumped 60% to 159. Prices were extremely strong, as Average Sale Price climbed 24% to $1,620,153, and Median Sale Price catapulted 34% to $1,475,000. Overall, Sold Volume doubled to $257,604,432. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 98% of their last list price - an improvement of 2% compared to a year ago. The largest sale on the Riviera was 1326 Hillcrest Road at $3,750,000.
Mesa
Statistically, the Mesa (MLS Area 20) was the least affected by the strong real estate market during the 3rd Quarter. Total Active Listings improved 25% to 180. The Number Sold bumped up to 6% to 111. Average Sale Price rose 5% to $1,263,932 while Median Sale Price jumped 9% to $1,063,300. Sold Volume increased 12% to $140,296,531. On average, properties on the Mesa sold for 98% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale on the Mesa was 1124 Harbor Hills Lane for $3,170,000.
I expect to see a strong 4th quarter for the Mesa with sales and prices both continuing to climb.
Samarkand
Statistically, Samarkand (MLS Area 20) was the least affected by the strong real estate market during the 3rd Quarter. Total Active Listings improved 25% to 180. The Number Sold bumped up to 6% to 111. Average Sale Price rose 5% to $1,263,932 while Median Sale Price jumped 9% to $1,063,300. Sold Volume increased 12% to $140,296,531. On average, properties in Samarkand sold for 98% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale in Samarkand was 405 Wyola Road for $1,500,000.
I expect to see a strong 4th quarter for Samarkand with sales and prices both continuing to climb.
Santa Barbara Foothills/Goleta North
Activity in the Santa Barbara Foothills/Goleta North (MLS Area 35) was fairly neutral during the 3rd Quarter of 2020. Sales improved, but prices were mixed. Total Active Listings bumped up 6% to 143 properties. The Number Sold climbed 10% to 97. Average Sale Price inched up 1% to $1,156,514 while Median Sale Price slipped 4% to $950,000. Overall, Sold Volume increased 11% to $112,181,950. On average, properties in MLS Area 35 sold for 98% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale during the 3rd Quarter was 747 Glen Annie for $3,200,000.
I expect the market to continue to improve during the 4th Quarter and into 2020.
Hope Ranch
Activity in Hope Ranch was strong during the 3rd Quarter with both sales and prices improving dramatically. Total Active Listings climbed 63%. Improved selection led to a 133% jump in the Number Sold to 21. Average Sale Price rose 19% to $4,288,984, while Median Sale Price jumped 20% to $3,485,000. Sold Volume skyrocketed 178% to $90,068,667. On average, properties in Hope Ranch sold for 91% of their last list price – a decline of 2% compared to a year ago. The largest sale in Hope Ranch during the 3rd Quarter was 4295 Marina Drive for $10,475,000.
I expect the strong market in Hope Ranch to continue through the 4th Quarter, and into 2021.
Birnam Wood
There are currently ten Active Listings in Birnam Wood – that is far more selection than we have had for many years. Despite the impressive selection of homes offered for sale, there was only one Closed Sale during the 3rd Quarter – 2069 Boundary Drive for $4,105,000. There is one Pending Sale, currently in the MLS – 2079 Birnam Wood Drive – listed at $4,195,000.
I expect sales to improve during the 4th Quarter, and into 2021.
Sincerely,
Daniel Encell
Director, Estates Division
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
(805) 565-4896
P.S. If you are considering selling, you need a strong agent with precise market knowledge, and superior marketing, advertising, and negotiation skills. In 33 years, I have sold over $1.6 billion in local sales. Creative marketing, extensive advertising, and good old fashioned hard work get the best results in any market! Please call me at (805) 565-4896 or email me at danencell@aol.com. All calls will be confidential.
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