1st Quarter 2019: 2018—The Year in Review
Nationwide
After years of declining housing levels nationwide, 2018 saw a reversal as Total Housing Inventory increased about 4%. Despite the improved selection, existing home sales slid about 7%, as higher interest rates hampered affordability. Prices continued to climb, as Median Sale Price rose about 4%. Unfortunately, activity in the West region of the country was not as strong as other regions. According to the National Association of Realtors, “A marked shift is occurring in the West region, with much lower sales and very soft price growth”. Sales in the West region are down about 15% compared to a year ago. Median Sale Price is up about 2%.
Santa Barbara - South Coast
Compared to the rest of California, which has seen a 31% increase in Active Listings since 2017, the increase in inventory of 8% along the South Coast in 2018 seems pretty moderate. Similarly, our 8% decline in the Number Sold (1594) is much less worrisome than the 13% statewide decline. Local prices have been surprisingly resilient, with Average Sale Price and Median Sale Price almost unchanged at $1,422,703 and $999,000 respectively. Overall, Sold Volume is down about 7% to $2,267,789,047. On average, properties sold for 96% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale along the South Coast in 2018 was 1627 East Valley Road, in Montecito, for $35,000,000. Close behind was 2840 Hidden Valley Lane, also in Montecito, at $34,000,000.
Montecito
Montecito was the only community along the South Coast where inventory levels declined in 2018, as Total Active Listings dropped 6%. There was a significant reduction in sales in Montecito, as the Number Sold fell 28% to 143. Median Sale Price slid 12% to $2,500,000. However, thanks to an extraordinarily strong year for estate properties, Average Sale Price jumped 11% to $3,611,192. There were at least ten Montecito sales above $10,000,000 in 2018, and two of those were above $30,000,000. Despite the strength of the highest end of the market, Sold Volume dipped 21% to $516,400,568. On average, properties in Montecito sold for 91% of their last list price – a decline of 1% compared to a year ago. On a positive note, the 4th Quarter of 2018 finished strong for Montecito, with Median Sale Price up 9% and Average Sale Price up 25% compared to the same period last year.
Birnam Wood Golf Club
Activity was very quiet in Birnam Wood in 2018. Going into December, there had only been one closed sale all year: 534 Las Fuentes Drive for $4,750,000. There were two additional sales in December: 442 Crocker Sperry Drive for $3,200,000; and, 2085 Birnam Wood Drive for $4,856,508. There are currently four MLS Active Listings in Birnam Wood: 2129 Forge Road for $3,595,000; 2069 Birnam Wood Drive for $4,395,000; 2029 Birnam Wood Drive for $4,695,000; and, 1908 Boundary Drive for $7,950,000. There are presently no MLS Pending Sales in Birnam Wood.
San Roque
The real estate market in San Roque (MLS Area 15) was one of the most stable along the South Coast in 2018. Inventory level gains were modest, as Total Active Listings rose 6%. Sales slid 4% as the Number Sold fell to 410. Average Sale Price inched down 1% to $1,345,793, and Median Sale Price dropped 2% to $1,200,000. Overall, Sold Volume slipped 5% to $551,775,402. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 97% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale in San Roque in 2018 was 3018 Paseo Tranquillo for $2,383,333.
Upper East
The real estate market in the Upper East (MLS Area 15) was one of the most stable along the South Coast in 2018. Inventory level gains were modest, as Total Active Listings rose 6%. Sales slid 4% as the Number Sold fell to 410. Average Sale Price inched down 1% to $1,345,793, and Median Sale Price dropped 2% to $1,200,000. Overall, Sold Volume slipped 5% to $551,775,402. On average, properties in MLS Area 15 sold for 97% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale in the Upper East in 2018 was 1732 Santa Barbara Street for $4,250,000.
Mesa
Activity on the Mesa (MLS Area 20) was one of the strongest along the South Coast in 2018. Inventory levels rose as Total Active Listings climbed 7%. Sales faltered a bit as the Number Sold dropped 6% to 338. Despite the rise in supply, and the decline in sales, prices were strong. Average Sale Price jumped an impressive 12% to $1,214,286, and Median Sale Price bumped up 4% to $982,500. Overall, Sold Volume moved up 5% to $410,428,820. On average, properties in MLS Area 20 sold for 98% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale on the Mesa in 2018 was 1631 Shoreline Drive for $3,950,000.
Samarkand
Activity in Samarkand (MLS Area 20) was one of the strongest along the South Coast in 2018. Inventory levels rose as Total Active Listings climbed 7%. Sales faltered a bit as the Number Sold dropped 6% to 338. Despite the rise in supply, and the decline in sales, prices were strong. Average Sale Price jumped an impressive 12% to $1,214,286, and Median Sale Price bumped up 4% to $982,500. Overall, Sold Volume moved up 5% to $410,428,820. On average, properties in MLS Area 20 sold for 98% of their last list price – unchanged from a year ago. The largest sale in Samarkand in 2018 was 2750 Cuesta Road for $1,825,000.
Santa Barbara Foothills/Goleta North
Activity was mixed in the portions of the Santa Barbara Foothills and north Goleta, included in the MLS Area 35. Inventory levels rose, as Total Active Listings jumped 14%. Despite the improved selection, sales faltered a bit as the Number Sold fell 3% to 298 properties. Prices were mixed, as Average Sale Price declined 4% to $939,000, and Median Sale Price climbed 4% to $855,000. Overall, Sold Volume fell 8% to $279,822,150. On average, properties in the MLS Area 35 sold for 98% of their last list price – an increase of 2% over the previous year. The largest sale in the MLS Area 35 during 2018 was 1045 Via Chaparral for $3,385,000.
Hope Ranch
After several sluggish years, Hope Ranch had a very strong year in 2018. Inventory levels rose, as Total Active Listings climbed 8%. Improved selection led to increased sales, as the Number Sold bumped up 12% to 36. Most impressive was the strong increase in prices. Average Sale Price jumped 35% to $4,989,922 and Median Sale Price skyrocketed 44% to $3,800,000. Overall, Sold Volume rose 52% to $179,637,200. On average, properties in Hope Ranch sold for 93% of their last list price – an increase of 3% over last year. The largest sale in Hope Ranch during 2018 was 1520 Roble Drive for $16,778,000.
Sincerely,
Daniel Encell
Director, Estates Division
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
(805) 565-4896
P.S. Despite challenging market conditions, I closed 17 Montecito sales during 2018. That is more than 10% of all Montecito sales. If you are considering selling, you need a strong agent with precise market knowledge, and superior marketing, advertising, and negotiation skills. In 31 years, I have sold more Montecito properties than any other agent – over $1.5 billion in local sales. Creative marketing, extensive advertising, and good old fashioned hard work get the best results in any market! Please call me at (805) 565-4896 or email me at danencell@aol.com. All calls will be confidential.
P.S. If you are considering selling, you need a strong agent with precise market knowledge, and superior marketing, advertising, and negotiation skills. In 31 years, I have sold over $1.5 billion in local real estate. Creative marketing, extensive advertising, and good old-fashioned hard work get the best results in any market! If you need real estate assistance, I can help you. Please call me at (805) 565-4896 or email me at danencell@aol.com. All calls will be confidential.
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