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Daniel Encell’s
Quarterly Real Estate Update
~ Archives ~

2nd Quarter 2018

Nationwide
Nationwide, the real estate market continues to experience rising home prices and a declining inventory of homes for sale. Total listings of homes for sale is down over 8% compared to a year ago, and has fallen for 33 consecutive months. Home prices are up over 5% compared to a year ago. According to the National Association of Realtors, “The expanding economy and healthy job market are generating sizable home buyer demand, but the miniscule number of listings on the market and its adverse effect on affordability are squeezing buyers and suppressing overall activity.” To further add to the woes of homebuyers, interest rates have risen about 7% in the past year, and are currently about 4.45% for 30 year fixed.

Santa Barbara - South Coast
Mirroring real estate trends in much of the country, inventory levels declined and prices increased along the South Coast during the first quarter of 2018. Total Active Listings fell 7% to 970. The lack of selection led to a drop in sales, as the Number Sold fell 13% to 312. Prices were strong, as Average Sale Price rose 13% to $1,512,085, and Median Sale Price jumped 16% to $1,052,500. Overall, Sold Volume slipped 2% to $471,770,451. On average, properties sold for 96% of their last list price – an increase of 1% compared to a year ago. The largest sale along the South Coast during the first quarter was in Montecito – 1627 East Valley Road for $35,000,000.

Montecito
After the January 9th devastation in Montecito, there was a distinct polarization of opinion as to what effect this tragedy would have on the real estate market. Sellers felt that prices would rise, as a significant segment of the supply of homes was unavailable, and a large number of people would need housing. On the other end of the spectrum, Buyers felt that the destruction would result in a significant decline in values. It is still too early to tell who is correct but so far it seems that, statistically, there has been very little change in the Montecito market.

There were only 5 fewer sales in Montecito during the first quarter of 2018, compared to the same time last year. (Coincidentally, Hope Ranch had 5 more sales). Inventory levels declined, as Total Active Listings fell 19% to 187. Prices were mixed, as Average Sale Price increased 10% to $3,853,934, and Median Sale Price slipped 4% to $2,637,500. Overall, Sold Volume declined 5% to $115,618,043. On average, properties in Montecito sold for 90% of their last list price – a decline of 1% compared to a year ago. The largest sale in Montecito during the first quarter was 1627 East Valley Road for $35,000,000. That is the second largest sale ever in Montecito!

San Roque / Upper East
Activity in the San Roque/ the Upper East (MLS Area 15) was mixed during the first quarter of 2018: inventory levels rose; sales declined; and, prices increased. Total Active Listings climbed 4% to 238 properties. Despite an increase in selection, sales fell as the Number Sold slid 3% to 84. Prices were strong, as Average Sale Price improved 6% to $1,431,610, and Median Sale Price jumped 15% to $1,280,000. Total Sold Volume inched up 2% to $120,507,278. On average, properties in San Roque/ the Upper East sold for 98% of their last list price – an increase of 2% compared to the same time last year.

Mesa/ Samarkand
A significant reduction in inventory led to strong prices in Samarkand/ on the Mesa (MLS Area 20) during the first quarter of 2018. Total Active Listings fell 14% to 163 properties. Despite the lower selection, the Number Sold was almost unchanged with 65 properties selling. Average Sale Price jumped 15% to $1,136,199, and Median Sale Price rose 14% to $930,000. Overall, Sold Volume improved 13% to $73,852,990. On average, properties in Samarkand/ on the Mesa sold for 98% of their last list price – an increase of 1% compared to the same time last year.

Santa Barbara/Goleta North
Activity was robust in Goleta North and the parts of the Santa Barbara Foothills included within MLS Area 35. Inventory levels soared, as Total Active Listings skyrocketed 18% to 153 properties. Sales improved modestly, as the Number Sold climbed 4% to 64. Prices were strong, as the Average Sale Price increased 3% to $918,196, and Median Sale Price jumped 17% to $830,000. Overall, Sold Volume rose 8% to $58,764,550. On average, properties in the MLS Area 35 sold for 99% of their last list price – a gain of 2% compared to the same time last year. 

Hope Ranch
Hope Ranch enjoyed a very robust start to 2018. Compared to the same period in 2017, inventory levels increased, as Total Active Listings rose 4% to 46. The Number Sold improved by 5 properties to 14. There were dramatic increases in prices, as Average Sale Price skyrocketed 36% to $4,211,192, and Median Sale Price jumped to 25% to $3,522,500. Overall, Sold Volume climbed 111% to $58,956,700. On average, properties in Hope Ranch sold for 92% of their last list price – a decline of 2%. Look for a very strong second quarter in Hope Ranch, as the index for Pending Sales (properties currently in escrow) is up substantially.

Sincerely,

Daniel Encell
Director, Estates Division
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
(805) 565-4896

 

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